Big D in Houston

Courtesy of SI.com

Well, I think it's safe to say that no one saw this one coming. As of this column, Dallas Keuchel leads the Astros in wins (10), innings pitched (185), and second in ERA to Colin McHugh (3.05). He leads all of baseball with a ground ball rate of 62.7%. The guy in second? Tyson Ross of the Padres with a GB% of 57.4%. If we use WAR, aka Wins Above Replacement, Keuchel has been the 18th most valuable starting pitcher in MLB, ahead of names such as Cole Hamels, Lance Lynn, and even Stephen Strasburg.

So how did the lefty, who came into the year with a 5.20 ERA, become the ace of the Astros? Simply put, he found an out pitch. Here is a chart of Keuchel's yearly batting average per pitch:

	2012	2013	2014
2-Seam Fastball	.254	.305	.221
4-Seam Fastball	.365	.316	.368
Slider	.000*	.248	.199
Change-up	.258	.287	.283
Cutter	.262	.281	.320
Curveball	.289	.333	.000**

*Only threw 3 sliders in 2012

*Has only thrown 1 curveball so far in 2014

(First thing that stands out is that Keuchel should pocket his four-seam fastball and not throw it unless he is using it as a "get-over" pitch in a 2-0 or 3-0 count. In his three years in the majors, batters are hitting .349 against it. I'm going to go on a limb and say that's not a good look for a pitcher.)

All starting pitchers need some type of breaking ball to keep hitters off-balanced and that's more paramount for a lefty because of the shear amount of right handed batters they will face in a year. Keuchel made it through the Astros' minor leagues by being a three pitch pitcher: the 2 seam fastball/sinker, change-up, and his breaking curveball. The problem, however, is that not all breaking pitches are made equal.

But enough talk; let's take a look at Keuchel's curve from 2013...

Courtesy of Walkoffwoodward.com

Castro sets up down and middle and Keuchel hangs the pitch right over the heart of the plate and Detroit Tiger Avisail Garcia makes him pay with a 3-run homer (You hang 'em, we bang 'em!). The oblivious lack of command and control is what did him in. No pitcher can survive long in the majors, and after 2 years, Keuchel looked like he was on his way back down to Oklahoma City. Permanently.


After the 2013 season, Keuchel used the off-season to reexamine his curve and came to the conclusion that it was god-awful. He even admitted it himself stating: "The curveball wasn't working for me and I figured I wanted to make a career out of this". So he went to work on improving his breaking ball, completely changed his grip on the ball to a tighter one, and created a brand new slider. And a deadly one at that.

Now take a look at his slider from 2014...

Courtesy of Crawfordboxes.com

Much different from the curve isn't it? Castro calls for the ball down and in and that's exactly where the ball ends up. The batter opens up and starts his swing early and comes up empty when he swings at a ball that is no longer there. Allow me to point out that as a right-handed batter, he should be able to pick up the ball from Keuchel's hand and determine that it's a slider and he still ended up with that goofy swing.

Go back to that chart from earlier. When your two best pitches are producing a combined .214 average against the best players in the world, you are having a great year. When you add in a 62.7 ground-ball percentage, you are a borderline All-Star (which would have happened if the Astros could score more often and give him more wins, but that's another conversation for another day). Dallas Keuchel is, by far, one of the biggest surprises of the Astros' 2014 season and at 26, he is just now entering his prime. As a fan, I can't wait to see what he does next year as an encore.

If only he would change his name to Houston....