Friday, January 16, 2015

Quick Hit: Evan Gattis Trade

Courtesy of USAToday.com 

So what happened?
On Wednesday, the Houston Astros traded pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Andrew Thurman, plus 3B Rio Ruiz to the Atlanta Braves for C/OF Evan Gattis and righty James Hoyt.

Awww I like Folty!
Join the club. Of all the pieces heading to the ALT, Foltynewicz, 23, is by far the biggest name. He has one of the best fastballs in the game, functional breaking pitches, and a decent change-up, just doesn't have the command to control them. Which isn't a surprise because if he did, he would still be an Astro and borderline untouchable. Folty's only 23, so there is a chance he'll refine his command and be a number 2 or 3 starter; there is also a chance he makes it as a dominant reliever a la Craig Kimbrel.

And Ruiz?
At 20, Ruiz has developed into a patient hitter, ranking among the top 10 percent in walk rate in the minors. but he does have a few flaws. First, he's a below average defender at third thanks to sloppy footwork and lack of speed. Secondly, Ruiz seems to only have, at best, average power. He spent the last 2 years hitting in two of the best hitting parks in the minors and hit 23 home runs. Total. If Ruiz is lucky, he'll finds some pop down the road and becomes the next Matt Carpenter. At worse, he never fills out, movers to first base, and becomes James Loney.

What about Thurman?
Both Thurman and James Hoyt are in the same boat: prospect lottery tickets most likely to be bullpen fodder. Let's move on before this post hits 1,000 words.

So let's talk about Gattis...
Sure. In two years in the majors, Gattis has shown big-time pop, bad on-base skills and even worse defense. He's best suited as a DH/IB but he is block at both positions by a freshly paid Carter and a still maturing Singleton, so mostly likely he will be lumbering out in left field misplaying fly balls. Sigh. Gattis' best position is at the plate and with the Crawford Boxes in his sites, 30+ home runs should be a given. Also, health is a question mark; Gattis has yet to play more than 110 games in a season due to back and knee injuries.

So here's the real question- Who is more likely to drive you insane in mid-July: Evan Gattis or Chris Carter?
Gattis by far. At least Carter will walk; Gattis seems to just strike out until he lucks into homers.

So do you like the trade?
This trade reminds me of a break-up in the sense that I can understand it even if I don't like it. Power is at a premium in this non-PED era, so it makes sense that teams have to play a little more to get it.

I've noticed that other Astros' fans have been ripping this trade, but can we please take off the rose-colored prospect glasses?  Thurman might make it as a fourth or fifth starter with his skill set. Ruiz became expendable the minute the Astros traded for Colin Moran last year. The real loss is Foltynewicz, who has the pitches to be a front-line starter, but his command might keep him as bullpen arm. And if that's the case, I would rather have a position player that affects 150+ games than a reliever who may get into 70. Understand that I am not 100% in favor of this trade; I just want to give it 50 games before I grade it to a failure.

Last thought: If I were to guess, I would say that this trade is just the beginning. With Gattis on board, I sincerely hope Dexter Fowler and/or Jason Castro are renting this season. 

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